IRIS - 中央情報局——戰略行動評估報告文件編號：CIA-2021-0122-ULTRA TOP SECRET 密級：絕對機密（僅限美國總統及國家安全顧問本人查閱）

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中央情報局——戰略行動評估報告33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡuNyqT3swpy
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文件編號：CIA-2021-0122-ULTRA TOP SECRET33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡedpZKzkOiz
密級：絕對機密（僅限美國總統及國家安全顧問本人查閱）33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ7xqBKoEsPt
保存期限：永久保存33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡSenrBuYzyX
查閱之後，請即時銷毀本文件。33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡOQ0lhpryOo
（閱後即焚 · 不得複製 · 不得存檔 · 不留任何文字紀錄）33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡWzZaOBNgzf
簽發人：中央情報局局長羅伯特·墨菲（Robert Murphy）33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡsrs7mQ9T9v
主送：美國總統羅伯特·海斯閣下（僅限本人查閱）33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡiznY8WyRTL
抄送：國家安全顧問（僅限本人查閱）33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡPARZURP1XB
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事由：關於「三國聯合IRIS機制」對美國國家利益之「損害評估」——以及對日本、中國、北韓之「報復行動建議」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ004IjVdkZm
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總統先生：33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ3Esa6isei7
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中央情報局於2021年1月22日，完成對「三國聯合IRIS機制」之「全面戰略評估」。經本局「最高級別」綜合分析，現向總統先生提交以下「損害評估報告」——並提出對日本、中國、北韓之「報復行動建議」。33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡq1EcGoNEva
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一、三國聯合IRIS機制對美國利益之「損害評估」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡldrLeOpSNO
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（一）日本——「最嚴重背叛」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡNir57wVWOf
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評估項目內容33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ7KIMYOWE2n
背叛性質日本作為美國「最緊密」之「亞洲盟友」——「主動」加入由「中國及北韓」主導之「三國聯合機制」——此為「公開背叛」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡtSO3xdGU23
損害程度極高（A級） ——日本之「背叛」將「嚴重削弱」美國喺亞洲之「同盟體系」——「鼓勵」其他盟友「效仿」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡWz9EU65I5z
象徵意義日本「選擇」中國而非美國——此「信號」將「震動」整個「亞洲安全架構」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡiyvHHs7S0k
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（二）中國——「主要策動者」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡFBQOwkDZkM
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評估項目內容33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡOrD7HF7unD
角色中國係「三國聯合機制」之「主要策動者」——透過「李英愛」及「IRIS」——「拉攏」日本及北韓33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡhiuw69fnuM
損害程度極高（A級） ——中國「成功」打破美國喺亞洲之「同盟包圍圈」——「削弱」美國之「地區影響力」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡptWV5wZua8
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戰略意圖中國「意圖」建立「獨立於美國」之「亞洲安全架構」——「挑戰」美國之「地區主導權」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ5F9nKQHFfE
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（三）北韓——「機會主義者」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡasmoi5UIuD
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評估項目內容33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡKZhZIMtiJG
角色北韓「利用」中國同日本之「關係」——「加入」三國聯合機制——「獲取」經濟及外交「利益」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡsDtMsUQmp5
損害程度中等（B級） ——北韓之「參與」令三國聯合機制「更具合法性」——同時「削弱」美國對北韓之「制裁壓力」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡw8qflvCQ0X
風險北韓可能「利用」IRIS機制——「獲取」更多「外交空間」——「削弱」美國嘅「制裁效果」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡZXUjgt3Atn
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二、報復行動建議——日本33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡG6d6UdtZBB
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（一）軍事層面33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ0uFPEIJkie
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行動說明預期效果33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡuYAENSA1sL
削減駐日美軍撤走約5,000名駐日美軍——主要為「沖繩」及「橫須賀」基地削弱日本防衛能力——同時向北韓釋放「日本安全受威脅」信號33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡR0hPLhrDSu
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取消聯合軍演取消2021年度「美日聯合軍事演習」削弱日本軍事威懾力——令日本「更脆弱」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡEbUupcWpSO
限制F-35交付暫緩向日本交付「F-35戰機」削弱日本空中力量現代化33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ3GYAtN4SWl
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（二）經濟層面33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡm78vYqQxtc
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行動說明預期效果33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ0WT6Ftb8I4
汽車關稅對日本汽車徵收25%關稅打擊日本經濟核心產業33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡuE1w2EVJM5
半導體限制限制對日本之「半導體技術」及「設備」出口打擊日本高科技產業33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡvy070nargt
貿易審查對日本進行「貿易行為審查」——「威脅」進一步制裁向日本「施壓」——「迫」其「讓步」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡYpA1tqBSBN
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（三）外交層面33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ7A1tuPplMM
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行動說明預期效果33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡcB7pCdfH0A
竹島爭議喺竹島／獨島爭議上「公開支持」韓國離間日韓關係——孤立日本33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡzhzHTbpt72
聯合國決議喺聯合國「支持」對日本不利之「決議」削弱日本國際形象33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡOgFeqjVC1J
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公開譴責公開「譴責」日本「破壞地區穩定」將日本標籤為「不負責任盟友」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡkc6d64eCxD
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（四）情報層面33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡptVJmClqPd
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行動說明預期效果33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡIx1km4U02f
削減情報共享限制與日本之「情報共享」——「核心情報」不再提供削弱日本情報能力33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡerIc6ihAWz
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三、報復行動建議——中國33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡOw8WFNiKAD
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（一）經濟層面33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡNUx0lb05UD
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行動說明預期效果33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ2Ca5cz8UjI
半導體制裁加強對中國之「半導體技術」及「設備」出口限制打擊中國高科技產業33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ02bU9l2sPg
關稅維持維持對中國商品之「額外關稅」持續向中國「施壓」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡZiXd9bduXh
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（二）外交層面33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡFSUwB6tqWn
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行動說明預期效果33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡSXHwhCzxOl
支持印度喺中印邊境爭議上「公開支持」印度牽制中國——「消耗」中國外交資源33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡIeNUVNqEWf
加強與台灣關係提升與台灣之「非官方關係」向中國「施壓」——「增加」中國嘅「戰略成本」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡHR6CuhZawf
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（三）軍事層面33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡQYLragmoov
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行動說明預期效果33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡpFsJSbgbTH
南海自由航行增加喺南海之「自由航行行動」展示美國「軍事存在」——「挑戰」中國嘅「地區主導權」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡrtvdeFmF2h
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四、報復行動建議——北韓33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡh3njBCQaj8
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（一）外交層面33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡlqIYhgcjPY
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行動說明預期效果33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡAYUt5Guckx
加強制裁推動聯合國「加強」對北韓之「制裁」增加北韓「經濟壓力」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡo2jPb91v7f
孤立北韓呼籲盟友「減少」與北韓之「接觸」削弱北韓「外交空間」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡA8mKvKHQ5M
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（二）軍事層面33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ1CsXu223Ck
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行動說明預期效果33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡyxEfIaL1pk
美韓聯合軍演加強「美韓聯合軍事演習」向北韓「展示」軍事威懾力33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ1S4x72RAql
戰略資產部署部署「轟炸機」或「航空母艦」至「朝鮮半島周邊」向北韓「施壓」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡhvKno2tbyO
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五、風險評估33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡVYKNKUEIrs
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風險級別應對措施33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡYcpVs6qUyz
日本「進一步」倒向中國高如果日本「感受到」美國「壓力」——可能「加速」與中國嘅「軍事合作」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡjjr7sqHX11
中國「報復」美國中中國可能「加強」對IRIS嘅「支持」——「對抗」美國33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡRkjttQsrua
北韓「軍事挑釁」中北韓可能「利用」緊張局勢——「試射導彈」或「進行核試驗」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡCW1QQ3I27x
三國聯合機制「更加緊密」高美國嘅「打壓」可能「反而」令三國「更加團結」33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡeDDmuMUbrC
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六、總結33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ9hWK9VWMXx
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總統先生：33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡhNtOi2m9id
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日本、中國、北韓——三國聯合IRIS機制——對美國國家利益構成「嚴重損害」。33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡAMHSH1MiGd
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日本之「背叛」——係「最嚴重」嘅「挑戰」——必須「嚴厲懲罰」——以「震懾」其他「潛在背叛者」。33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡV15UXTyAUP
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本局強烈建議：33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ2HTXAEgDe7
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（一）對日本——實施「全面懲罰」——軍事（削減駐軍、取消軍演、限制F-35）、經濟（關稅、半導體限制）、外交（支持韓國、聯合國譴責）、情報（削減共享）——「同時出手」。33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ5TUN8svQWg
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（二）對中國——實施「有限度施壓」——半導體制裁、支持印度、加強南海行動——「牽制」中國——「消耗」其「戰略資源」。33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ9AJTbASS0H
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（三）對北韓——實施「威懾與孤立」——加強制裁、美韓軍演、戰略資產部署——「防止」北韓「利用」當前局勢。33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡhWItL0CpI9
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（中央情報局印）33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡz1kqI14vgL
2021年1月22日33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ82ad2xFJw5
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本文件閱讀後，請即時銷毀。33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ7z33PkjkJw
不留任何文字檔案。33Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡOzdUeeWsBE