IRIS - 意大利情報部門——聯合評估報告

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意大利情報部門——聯合評估報告32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡt6bYkeqpLm
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文件編號：AISE/AISI〔2020〕-0805-聯合極秘32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ5kZx6JKI09
密級：極秘（僅限意大利總理及國防部長本人查閱）32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ62l5intWpr
保存期限：永久保存32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡHvydDDebeB
簽發人：AISE局長馬可·羅西（Marco Rossi）／AISI局長保羅·貝爾蒂（Paolo Berti）32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡeabyRN0N4w
主送：意大利總理（僅限本人查閱）32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡhEDhpxQHKP
抄送：國防部長（僅限本人查閱）32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡLUqHK8Mv1O
事由：關於「福爾泰扎堡壘事件」之「聯合評估報告」——以及對「IRIS團隊」之「態度建議」32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ16HW2LaOSW
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一、事件概述32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡKDUC0LQB3K
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2020年8月5日凌晨，福爾泰扎堡壘（Forte di Fortezza）發生「爆炸事件」。經本局「聯合調查」，現已確認以下事實：32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡyxnBKymMbP
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項目內容32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡg97RpD4UPy
地點福爾泰扎堡壘（意大利南蒂羅爾地區）32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ9I50wvMBVh
時間 2020年8月5日凌晨1時至3時32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡyXVCvKXJOM
目標赤道組織秘密金庫（藏有大量金條、美金及債券）32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡkeXl2Ha6OI
執行者 IRIS團隊（四人：G、車婉婉、馮盈盈、南空直美）32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡVcjfFTOOer
結果金庫被「完全摧毁」——「全部」金條、美金、債券「化為灰燼」——「六名赤道守衛」全部「生還」——「無死亡」32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡDuRGDGhHR8
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現場遺留牆上「紅色噴漆」寫有「FUCK YOU」——署名「IRIS」32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡQ5HEyS9Ts8
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二、對IRIS團隊之「綜合評估」32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡy1fqs1dzmk
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經AISE及AISI「聯合分析」，現對IRIS團隊作出以下「綜合評估」：32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡNoBYknfr0S
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（一）作戰能力32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡUVXmL4lWYd
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評估項目評級說明32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ1tgPhC0dCV
潛入能力 A級（極高）能夠「避開」堡壘周邊嘅「閉路電視系統」及「守衛巡邏」——「無聲」進入金庫32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡcryIloANB4
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戰鬥能力 A級（極高）四名成員「協同作戰」——「迅速」制服六名守衛——「全過程十五秒」32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡKajmrJM3aS
技術能力 A級（極高）能夠「入侵」堡壘嘅「電子監控系統」——「遙距引爆」炸藥32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡp6APB7fj8f
撤退能力 A級（極高）成功「向北」撤離——「進入」奧地利邊境——「甩掉」追兵32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡHR20yt64TF
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（二）戰略意圖32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ07l9wNen0i
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評估項目內容32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡLbqKIO7T0J
目標 IRIS「針對」嘅係「赤道組織」——而「唔係」意大利政府或意大利人民32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡcnDlVRIemr
手段 IRIS「選擇」唔殺守衛——「留活口」——顯示佢哋「有克制」——而「唔係」冷血殺手32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡyyilKIn0mH
訊息「FUCK YOU」——係向赤道組織「宣示」——IRIS「唔會放過」佢哋32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ2cw3xu9hEP
立場 IRIS「有」中國中央「支持」——佢哋「唔係」非法武裝組織——而係「獲認證」嘅「反恐力量」32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡGvveku3bTo
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（三）對意大利之「威脅評估」32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡoCJZ6t7yQx
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評估項目評級說明32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡHssSD8pLLc
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直接威脅 🟢 零 IRIS「並無」對意大利政府或人民「構成威脅」——佢哋「只針對」赤道組織32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡA3gw7ySgOV
間接影響 🟡 輕微 IRIS行動「未造成」平民傷亡——「未引發」社會恐慌——「未損害」意大利國際形象32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ4aaCzE7xyM
潛在風險 🟢 低如果意大利「主動追捕」IRIS——可能會「得罪」中國——「得不償失」32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ4cXKXuHiki
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三、戰略建議32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ0s2k53XJyX
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基於以上評估，AISE及AISI聯合建議如下：32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡA850enK9H7
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建議說明32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡCCVVgsvXHJ
1. 唔主動追捕IRIS IRIS「針對」赤道——「唔係針對」意大利——追捕佢哋會「得罪」中國——「冇必要」32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡr0ZeLvNmf7
2. 發佈「低調」通緝令對外「做吓樣」——展示意大利政府「有行動」——但「唔會」真係「全力追捕」32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡMJFIM4aOVj
3. 暗中觀察IRIS 如果IRIS「再次」進入意大利——AISE會「監視」但「唔會干預」——除非佢哋「危害」意大利國家安全32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡzIrFzXoGCr
4. 考慮未來合作 IRIS係「對抗赤道」嘅「有效力量」——意大利「將來」可能「需要」佢哋「協助」32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡlADjgf35xQ
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四、總結32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡLqcnlgoh7M
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IRIS團隊喺「福爾泰扎堡壘事件」中展示咗「極高」嘅「作戰能力」同「戰略克制」。32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡPzjRgVarDE
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佢哋「針對」嘅係「赤道組織」——而「唔係」意大利。32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡ3wYuAtHA6T
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佢哋「有」中國中央「支持」——而「唔係」非法武裝組織。32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡRnWzzk4tqQ
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本局強烈建議——意大利政府「唔主動追捕」IRIS——「發佈低調通緝令」做吓樣——「暗中觀察」——「考慮未來合作」。32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡPCvZw33VCa
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（AISE／AISI 聯合印）32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡdAC6a0L1cv
2020年8月5日32Please respect copyright.ＰＥＮＡＮＡCJH67L51hk